New Behaviorism and New Cognitivism

lstm_memorycellDeep Learning now dominates discussions of intelligent systems in Silicon Valley. Jeff Dean’s discussion of its role in the Alphabet product lines and initiatives shows the dominance of the methodology. Pushing the limits of what Artificial Neural Networks have been able to do has been driven by certain algorithmic enhancements and the ability to process weight training algorithms at much higher speeds and over much larger data sets. Google even developed specialized hardware to assist.

Broadly, though, we see mostly pattern recognition problems like image classification and automatic speech recognition being impacted by these advances. Natural language parsing has also recently had some improvements from Fernando Pereira’s team. The incremental improvements using these methods should not be minimized but, at the same time, the methods don’t emulate key aspects of what we observe in human cognition. For instance, the networks train incrementally and lack the kinds of rapid transitions that we observe in human learning and thinking.

In a strong sense, the models that Deep Learning uses can be considered Behaviorist in that they rely almost exclusively on feature presentation with a reward signal. The internal details of how modularity or specialization arise within the network layers are interesting but secondary to the broad use of back-propagation or Gibb’s sampling combined with autoencoding. This is a critique that goes back to the early days of connectionism, of course, and why it was somewhat sidelined after an initial heyday in the late eighties. Then came statistical NLP, then came hybrid methods, then a resurgence of corpus methods, all the while with image processing getting more and more into the hand-crafted modular space.

But we can see some interesting developments that start to stir more Cognitivism into this stew.… Read the rest

Evolving Visions of Chaotic Futures

FlutterbysMost artificial intelligence researchers think unlikely the notion that a robot apocalypse or some kind of technological singularity is coming anytime soon. I’ve said as much, too. Guessing about the likelihood of distant futures is fraught with uncertainty; current trends are almost impossible to extrapolate.

But if we must, what are the best ways for guessing about the future? In the late 1950s the Delphi method was developed. Get a group of experts on a given topic and have them answer questions anonymously. Then iteratively publish back the group results and ask for feedback and revisions. Similar methods have been developed for face-to-face group decision making, like Kevin O’Connor’s approach to generating ideas in The Map of Innovation: generate ideas and give participants votes equaling a third of the number of unique ideas. Keep iterating until there is a consensus. More broadly, such methods are called “nominal group techniques.”

Most recently, the notion of prediction markets has been applied to internal and external decision making. In prediction markets,  a similar voting strategy is used but based on either fake or real money, forcing participants towards a risk-averse allocation of assets.

Interestingly, we know that optimal inference based on past experience can be codified using algorithmic information theory, but the fundamental problem with any kind of probabilistic argument is that much change that we observe in society is non-linear with respect to its underlying drivers and that the signals needed are imperfect. As the mildly misanthropic Nassim Taleb pointed out in The Black Swan, the only place where prediction takes on smooth statistical regularity is in Las Vegas, which is why one shouldn’t bother to gamble.… Read the rest